Our newly elected Labour government continues to be a tale of two feelings - happiness in what we have, and sadness in what could have been. With the recent European Political Community meeting, held at Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire, Keir Starmer’s message of ‘resetting’ our relationship with the European Union couldn’t have had a better start. In fact, with the pictures of Britain’s Starmer and France’s Macron strolling around tranquil gardens, you’d be excused to think the UK had rejoined the EU and all was well in the world. In actual fact, Europe’s position - against Russia, against Donald Trump - is in further jeopardy by the minute.
With the rise of far-right parties in Europe in recent elections, the union on the continent seems weaker than ever. Focused primarily on maintaining the defence of Ukraine, centrist parties in the EU parliament have received opposition from Viktor Orban’s ‘Patriots for Europe’ group. With the Hungarian Prime Minister’s further alignment with Vladimir Putin, he leads the opposition to EU unity on the question of the Russo-Ukrainian War and its continuation. In France, despite the surprise victory of the left-wing alliance ‘New Popular Front’, Marine Le Pen’s far-right ‘National Rally’ came third in the recent parliamentary elections. Le Pen’s party was devastated, but remained steadfast in their commitment to bring a far-right government to France in the next elections. With these key escalations, the far right is on the rise almost everywhere. However, in Britain, the Labour Party’s landslide victory positions their government as a bastion of centrism amidst a sea of right-wing sentiment. Unfortunately, this position is tainted by the legacy of Brexit. What could have been, was ruined by reality.
After the departure of Angela Merkel from the position of German Chancellor in 2021, Europe struggled to find its ‘figurehead’ leader. No one leader stood out internationally as a champion of the European project - a name to a face that could be synonymous with an organisation. Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President since 2019, comes close after working in Merkel’s cabinet. Von der Leyen, another centrist, now holds a weakened alliance with centrist leaders in EU countries. Without Merkel, many tapped Macron as the dominant EU advocate - a strong voice for centrism. However, his ultimately weak position in French domestic politics leaves his future as President up in the air - along with France’s international standing. Regardless of the surprisingly positive result of his centrist party (somewhat aptly renamed ‘renaissance’), his personal unpopularity makes his future success almost untenable. Olaf Scholtz in Germany - Merkel’s successor as Chancellor - has also failed to take his predecessor’s position in Europe. In the recent European election, Scholz SPD came third behind the far-right AfD party. Scholz’s coalition of SPD, Greens, and FDP could well collapse as the fiscally conservative FDP opposes the government's proposed spending increases in the 2025 budget.
The two most dominant countries in the EU, France and Germany, are both marred by weakened leaders and the increasing popularity of the far-right. All in all, von der Leyen has no centrist allies in the EU with strong enough domestic mandates and international clout to champion Europe and defeat the surging far-right.
Then the UK came to elect Keir Starmer. Centrist, Remainer, Internationalist. His electoral position, in a world without Brexit, would have been perfect for a UK looking to adopt a leadership position in Europe. With Starmer supporting them, and von der Leyen at the helm, the UK’s standing in Europe, and to a lesser extent, internationally, would have grown immensely in the absence of stronger figures on the continent. Instead of a Conservative government pushed by backbench eurosceptics and the likes of Nigel Farage, Labour would be well suited to push British interests on the continent, instead of seeking to fulfil them elsewhere. One could imagine an alternate Keir Starmer, entering the European stage with a huge mandate, upon which he could take much bolder action than weaker European leaders like Macron and Scholtz.
Alas, it was not to be. Brexit, and its legacy, has seemingly tainted the UK’s relationship with the EU beyond immediate repair. Such a task will take years to see come to fruition, but Starmer’s quickfire meeting of key European leaders has been a step in the right direction. One can only hope the change of government has demonstrated to European allies a different approach to relations on the continent. Perhaps with a second term for Starmer’s government, and closer ties with the EU after his first five years, the party will seek bold action such as rejoining the customs union or single market. For now, we have to resign ourselves to romantic photos of Blenheim Palace gardens. Still, with the Prime Minister’s approval rating rising, and his successes in recent events, europhiles around the country can’t help but sigh in contemplation of what could have been a golden era of UK-EU relations.